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Example Forecast Discussion 1:
The 0Z run on Nov 14th of the GFS model shows in the upper air, for 12Z on Sunday Nov 15th, a deep trough digging its way into the western part of the United States, building strong surface high pressures from Idaho down into Southern California, kicking up the Santa Ana Winds. Ahead of the trough, a strong jet streak of 110kts is making its way though the plains. The top exit area of the jet streak, associated with upper level divergence, is located in Northeastern New Mexico, as it moves though Kansas throughout the day, it plays an important role in the convection at the surface and the strongest storms and heaviest rainfall will be located in east and central Kansas.
The upper level energy of the jet extends from Southern Texas up into the Great Lakes area. This will be the driving force for a surface cold front extending from Western Canada down into central Texas. This cold front moves along slowly as the trough stays in mainly in the same place for most of the days ahead. The cold front is the primary sources of convection from Michigan down though the plains into Texas. A dry line forms in Central Texas and moves along also helping to fire storms in central Texas.
Another system moves into the Washington coast off the Pacific bringing rain to that region and the remaining energy associated with Ida moves close to the Northeast bringing heavy rainfall to that area. Another cold front extends from the Northeastern part of New Mexico down into Baha California.
The 0Z run on Nov 14th of the GFS model shows in the upper air, for 12Z on Sunday Nov 15th, a deep trough digging its way into the western part of the United States, building strong surface high pressures from Idaho down into Southern California, kicking up the Santa Ana Winds. Ahead of the trough, a strong jet streak of 110kts is making its way though the plains. The top exit area of the jet streak, associated with upper level divergence, is located in Northeastern New Mexico, as it moves though Kansas throughout the day, it plays an important role in the convection at the surface and the strongest storms and heaviest rainfall will be located in east and central Kansas.
The upper level energy of the jet extends from Southern Texas up into the Great Lakes area. This will be the driving force for a surface cold front extending from Western Canada down into central Texas. This cold front moves along slowly as the trough stays in mainly in the same place for most of the days ahead. The cold front is the primary sources of convection from Michigan down though the plains into Texas. A dry line forms in Central Texas and moves along also helping to fire storms in central Texas.
Another system moves into the Washington coast off the Pacific bringing rain to that region and the remaining energy associated with Ida moves close to the Northeast bringing heavy rainfall to that area. Another cold front extends from the Northeastern part of New Mexico down into Baha California.
Example Forecast Discussion 2:
The temps and dew pts remain in a similar like pattern over the forecast period of 8z on Wed. Nov. 18th due to the unchanging air mass over the area. Since we are in the dry season for Florida, POPS remain very low, close to zero percent. Fog is expected over most of the forecast area, however, due to local effects on the coastal areas, the spread between the dew pt. and temp are slightly higher than those inland. The buoy’s dew pt. is remains similar to the coastal regions and the temp remains close to that at daytime due to lack of radiative cooling over the waters. Coastal regions are forecasted to be slightly warmer than the inland regions, due to proximity to the warm waters of the Atlantic.
The temps and dew pts are around the warmest point in the forecast period of 20z on Wed Nov. 18th because the sun has radiated the earth for several hours already. The front coming in from the Gulf of Mexico is not expected to make its way into Florida until the next day, Thursday Nov. 19th, so temps remain in the same pattern as days before and dew pts remain low in the dry air coming from the northeast. Coastal regions are slightly cooler than the inland areas due to the effects of the seabreeze. The buoy’s temp is the coolest because the ocean heats slower than the land. POPS remain extremely low. A few slight chances in the southern half of the forecast area, Fort Pierce, Patrick AFB, and the Cape Canaveral Buoy as indicated by the 0z, Nov 16th run of the GFS.
The temps and dew pts remain in a similar like pattern over the forecast period of 8z on Wed. Nov. 18th due to the unchanging air mass over the area. Since we are in the dry season for Florida, POPS remain very low, close to zero percent. Fog is expected over most of the forecast area, however, due to local effects on the coastal areas, the spread between the dew pt. and temp are slightly higher than those inland. The buoy’s dew pt. is remains similar to the coastal regions and the temp remains close to that at daytime due to lack of radiative cooling over the waters. Coastal regions are forecasted to be slightly warmer than the inland regions, due to proximity to the warm waters of the Atlantic.
The temps and dew pts are around the warmest point in the forecast period of 20z on Wed Nov. 18th because the sun has radiated the earth for several hours already. The front coming in from the Gulf of Mexico is not expected to make its way into Florida until the next day, Thursday Nov. 19th, so temps remain in the same pattern as days before and dew pts remain low in the dry air coming from the northeast. Coastal regions are slightly cooler than the inland areas due to the effects of the seabreeze. The buoy’s temp is the coolest because the ocean heats slower than the land. POPS remain extremely low. A few slight chances in the southern half of the forecast area, Fort Pierce, Patrick AFB, and the Cape Canaveral Buoy as indicated by the 0z, Nov 16th run of the GFS.